Thursday, February 26, 2015

Professional Realist Bracket Projection - 2/26/15

Hey guys!
Two and a half weeks now until Selection Sunday!!
Thanks for the feedback, I hadn't realized that I left off Michigan State from my last bracket.
I double-checked this one before I published, so I think (HOPEFULLY) I have every team in the bracket that I meant to have in this projection.
The bubble is shrinking dramatically to the teams that are still realistically in the mix for an at-large bid.

Bracketology – February 26th, 2015 – Professional Realist’s Official 2015 Bracket Projection
(through games on February 25th, 2015)


Seeds

1
Kentucky
Virginia
Duke
Villanova
2
Gonzaga
Wisconsin
Kansas
Arizona
3
Maryland
Iowa State
Baylor
Arkansas
4
Utah
Oklahoma
Northern Iowa
Notre Dame
5
Louisville
SMU
North Carolina
Wichita State
6
West Virginia
Butler
Georgetown
Providence
7
San Diego State
Mississippi
Michigan State
VCU
8
Ohio State
Georgia
Xavier
Oklahoma State
9
Dayton
Colorado State
Indiana
LSU
10
NC State
St. John’s
Iowa
Texas A&M
11
Oregon
UCLA
Cincinnati
Texas/Davidson
12
Temple/Purdue
Iona
Stephen F. Austin
Wofford
13
Murray State
Harvard
Central Michigan
Louisiana Tech
14
Cleveland State
UC Davis
South Dakota State
Georgia State
15
High Point
New Mexico St.
NC Central
Albany
16
Bucknell
Sacramento State
William & Mary/ North Florida
Texas Southern /
St. Francis (N.Y.)
First Four Out:
Tulsa
Illinois
Pittsburgh
Stanford
Next Four Out:
Boise State
Miami (FL)
BYU
Rhode Island



Saturday, February 21, 2015

Time to Release the Bubbly (Resumes)!

With Selection Sunday now only three weeks away, every game is absolutely vital to those teams just riding along on the bubble. Some just need to avoid bad losses, while others have a few last chances to correct some glaring flaws in their resume before Conference Tournaments begin. I'm going to start detailing a few of the "what needs to happen" for each team either in the tournament or solidly on the bubble. As fluid as the bubble is, some teams may start to creep back in, but it's doubtful that it will change too much, with so few games left in the regular season. 

11 AM CT Games
#17 Oklahoma @ Texas Tech - seeding purposes only. Oklahoma is fine, Texas Tech won't get close to making the tournament. L here probably costs Oklahoma the 3/4 lines.
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse - not too distantly, this would've been a huge game. This year, Syracuse self-imposed a postseason ban and Pitt isn't as good. Not a must win for Pitt, but it'd help their resume.
Georgia Tech @ North Carolina - Should be a pretty easy hold for North Carolina. Georgia Tech isn't as bad as their record, but if you're going to compete for the 3/4/5 lines, gotta win this UNC.
Seton Hall @ St. John's - SH is probably done regardless, but this would hurt St. John's resume more. They're about a 10/11 for me right now. Got to win this Johnnies. 
Minnesota @ Wisconsin - I feel like Minny is dead in the water, but a road win at a potential #1 seed can do wonders for your resume. Definitely the best shot to creep back to the bubble. L would probably knock Wisconsin back behind Gonzaga and Villanova for me.
Texas A&M @ South Carolina - MUST WIN for Texas A&M. No margin for error on a very bubbly resume. Tough road ahead, so this is one you've GOT to get, even if it's on the road.
UMass @ #25 VCU - This is a big game in the A10. UMass is losing ground to the bubble and if they want to get back in the serious talks, this is the game to get people's attention.

12 PM CT Games
Kansas State @ #20 Baylor - Baylor will take a seed hit with a loss here. Not that K-State is that bad, probably the best team around .500 in recent memory, but there is a large cluster of teams from the 3-7 lines and Baylor is sitting well among them. Lose here, and you'll be closer to the latter.
Florida @ LSU - Must win, LSU. Already dropped a few games at home to mediocre or bad teams. Can't drop this and expect to stay in the bracket. 

1 PM CT Games
#14 Iowa State @ Texas - Texas might be okay losing the rest of their games, since it's tough, but I wouldn't test that theory. This would pretty much mean Texas is in, if they get the home win. Iowa State needs this to stay toward the top of the 3 line.
#23 West Virginia @ #22 Oklahoma State - One of these teams is going to get a pretty big win. Oklahoma State had a better resume, but now WVU's upset of Kansas has them looking good too. Oklahoma State needs to figure out how to stop the bleeding from losing two straight. Loser probably gets kicked closer to the 8/9 range.
Miami @ #12 Louisville - One of the teams right on the cut-line, this would be a big win for Miami. Louisville too needs to stop the bleeding, but is definitely a lock for the NCAA tournament. 
#18 Butler @ Xavier - This is a big game, under the radar. Neither resume impresses me too terribly, but there is a higher ceiling for Butler. Go win at X and we'll talk about the 3/4 lines. 
Dayton @ Duquesne - No Questions Asked. Dayton this is a MUST WIN. Don't throw it away this late in your schedule, you're staying one step above the bubble. 

1:30 PM CT Games
#6 Villanova @ Marquette - Lose this and it's going to be tough to get to that 1 line, 'Nova. Hold Serve.

2 PM CT Games
Louisiana Tech @ Old Dominion - last chance, ODU. LA Tech isn't going to get an at-large, but this would do in Old Dominion for at large. CUSA could be 1 bid by the end of the day.
Nevada @ Boise State - yet another bubbler that HAS to hold serve. Boise will be off the bubble with a L here. 

3 PM CT Games
Arkansas @ Mississippi State - Chance for Arky to get a winning record on the road and continue their solid resume. Win this, no bad loss potential in the last four (potentially South Carolina), but keeping winning would start to bring talks of the three line. 
TCU @ #8 Kansas - Just win this Kansas. No real bracket impact, besides seeding for KU. Not getting a 1 seed if you drop this. 
Bradley @ Northern Iowa - Yeahhhhh. UNI just win.
Clemson @ Duke - Want a big win to jump into the bubble picture? Go win this Clemson. Otherwise, Tigers are probably done. 
Notre Dame @ Boston College - this would be a terrible hit to ND's resume. NCSOS is killer, so start losing these and you'll slide down the ramp fast. 
Rhode Island @ George Mason - Must win on the road URI, if you're going to make a push for the bubble. 

Evening Games will be covered later today



Friday, February 20, 2015

Professional Realist Bracket Projection February 20th, 2015


Professional Realist's February 20th Bracket Projection - 2/20/15

Seeds

1
Kentucky
Virginia
Duke
Villanova
2
Wisconsin
Gonzaga
Kansas
Arizona
3
Iowa State
North Carolina
Utah
Oklahoma
4
Maryland
Arkansas
Louisville
Notre Dame
5
Butler
SMU
Northern Iowa
Baylor
6
Georgetown
VCU
Wichita State
West Virginia
7
Providence
Oklahoma State
San Diego State
Ohio State
8
Dayton
Mississippi
Xavier
Texas
9
Indiana
Temple
Georgia
St. John’s
10
Iowa
Stanford
Illinois
Cincinnati
11
Colorado State
NC State
Texas A&M
LSU/Purdue
12
UCLA/Iowa
Iona
Stephen F. Austin
Murray State
13
Wofford
Harvard
Eastern Washington
Valparaiso
14
Louisiana Tech
UC Davis
Toledo
LA Monroe
15
High Point
New Mexico St.
NC Central
Florida Gulf Coast
16
Albany
Northeastern
Texas Southern/ Northeastern
Bucknell /
St. Francis (N.Y.)
First Four Out:
Pittsburgh
Oregon
Miami (FL)
BYU
Next Four Out:
Davidson
Boise State
Tulsa
Alabama